Well, there's the deficit but also China's central bank has steadily reduced Treas holdings while BoJ ramps up, and other sovereigns incented to reduce if they think dollar continue to weaken or their country was running trade surplus w/US. (trying to figure out vol profile on $DXY in tradingview...)
But we are around or just over Bessent's pain points for /ZB and /zn so we'll see
All the bond buyers have a strategic interest that the US keeps its position of power but since this comes with unrealistic growth expectations, i cant imagine them all holding on to it. And then comes the panic selling...
Trump is kind of the perfect storm, it looks almost deliberate. I wonder if right wing media will still be able control the narrative and place the blame on some other minority in all the down trend -- wether the US might recover or stay on that trajectory.
Europe has its own problems, and US instability will magnify them. The last 20 years have shown that China is essentially uninvestible for foreigners. Japan maybe offers relative stability but without growth. Commodities might seem like a safe haven, but will decline in value in a recession.
For the pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who hold the hundreds of billions of dollars of US debt instruments, what are the realistic option? Buy billions in gold? Invest in Japan, South Korea and India? Bet on a European turnaround? Yolo it on fartcoin?
I'm not sure what the safe haven is when America goes bankrupt.
> I wonder if right wing media will still be able control the narrative and place the blame on some other minority in all the down trend
That might depend on how much more dirt his followers are willing to eat for Trump. And this is somewhat hard to predict, many of them are already so deep in the con there is a significant sunken-cost fallacy at play. But I am pretty sure all of that has limits as well.
The big beautiful bill that passed a few weeks ago go gave massive tax cuts to the rich while reducing social safety nets and increasing the deficit by 5 trillion.
Both parties are hell bent on flying this country into a mountain.
there is a whole lot of options as to what is next for america except that fucking elon musk is involved in any way. better chance of him being arrested and sent to el salvador :)
Well, there's the deficit but also China's central bank has steadily reduced Treas holdings while BoJ ramps up, and other sovereigns incented to reduce if they think dollar continue to weaken or their country was running trade surplus w/US. (trying to figure out vol profile on $DXY in tradingview...)
But we are around or just over Bessent's pain points for /ZB and /zn so we'll see
Treas by central banks https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury-international-capita...
For magnitude:
The Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: July 2025 Update - https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/18/the-foreign-investors-who-... - July 18th, 2025
Why the economy won't grow out of this debt structure:
Grow the Economy? Not With These Immigration Restrictions - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-18/immigr... | https://archive.today/GfLWG - July 18th, 2025
All the bond buyers have a strategic interest that the US keeps its position of power but since this comes with unrealistic growth expectations, i cant imagine them all holding on to it. And then comes the panic selling...
Trump is kind of the perfect storm, it looks almost deliberate. I wonder if right wing media will still be able control the narrative and place the blame on some other minority in all the down trend -- wether the US might recover or stay on that trajectory.
Where does the money go though?
Europe has its own problems, and US instability will magnify them. The last 20 years have shown that China is essentially uninvestible for foreigners. Japan maybe offers relative stability but without growth. Commodities might seem like a safe haven, but will decline in value in a recession.
For the pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who hold the hundreds of billions of dollars of US debt instruments, what are the realistic option? Buy billions in gold? Invest in Japan, South Korea and India? Bet on a European turnaround? Yolo it on fartcoin?
I'm not sure what the safe haven is when America goes bankrupt.
Switzerland?
Eurobonds until India and/or Africa have economies with sovereign debt with similar risk.
> I wonder if right wing media will still be able control the narrative and place the blame on some other minority in all the down trend
That might depend on how much more dirt his followers are willing to eat for Trump. And this is somewhat hard to predict, many of them are already so deep in the con there is a significant sunken-cost fallacy at play. But I am pretty sure all of that has limits as well.
wolf street?? no ty
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The big beautiful bill that passed a few weeks ago go gave massive tax cuts to the rich while reducing social safety nets and increasing the deficit by 5 trillion.
Both parties are hell bent on flying this country into a mountain.
Maybe Elon's third party can do something.
“Both parties“ did not do this. A single party did this. Not acknowledging this is part of the problem.
there is a whole lot of options as to what is next for america except that fucking elon musk is involved in any way. better chance of him being arrested and sent to el salvador :)